Overview
The Fulfilment Risk feature, which runs on an hourly basis, helps identify publishers who might struggle to meet their lead goals for assigned campaigns by identifying trends and potential risks from past performance data.
This allows you to take action early, whether by offering support, adjusting expectations, or finding solutions.
Important to Know: Our predictions consider when the publisher signed their contract, the campaign end date, and the percentage of valid leads delivered.
Publishers who have met their allocation won’t have predictions, and those less than 15% into their duration are automatically classed as low risk to allow time for lead delivery. If you don’t see numbers right away, don’t worry, it may take a few days for everything to update.
| Enough Data | Not Enough Data |
|---|---|
Please note: While the calculations provide useful insights, it’s not a replacement for human judgment and context. It works best when combined with experience and business knowledge to make well-informed decisions.
How Fulfilment Risk Works: A Simple Example
You have a campaign that needs 100 leads and it’s ending in 5 days. 1 of your publishers is assigned 50 leads, but they haven’t delivered any valid leads yet.
Analysis of publishers past performance is undertaken by way of:
- How often do publishers meet their lead targets
- The quality of publisher leads (valid vs. invalid)
- When publishers typically submit leads (early or last-minute)
- The time left in the campaign
Based on this, the model will classify the publisher’s risk level as:
| Risk Level | Description |
|---|---|
| Low | Likely to deliver on time |
| Medium | May need some monitoring |
| High | Unlikely to meet the target, requiring action |
How We Calculate Risk
The risk category is determined based on the below data points.
Please note: The insights do not take into account publisher bands at present.
| Feature Name | Description |
|---|---|
| Campaign ID | Unique identifier for the campaign. |
| Publisher ID | Unique identifier for the publisher assigned to the campaign. |
| Days Until Campaign End | Number of days between the publisher's first publisher signed a contract on the campaign and the campaign's end date. |
| Lead Requirement | Total number of leads required for the publisher to meet their target. |
| Campaign Time Interval (%) | Percentage completion of the campaign based on when the first publisher signed a contract on the campaign and campaign end date . |
| Publisher Disabled Status | Indicating whether the publisher has ever been disabled on the campaign or not |
| Lead Progress Metrics | Percentage of total, valid, and invalid leads achieved at each time interval, relative to the lead total required. |
| Remaining Lead Requirement (%) | Percentage of total, valid, and invalid leads still required to meet the campaign goal at each interval. |
| Lead Efficiency Ratio | The percentage of total, valid, and invalid leads achieved at each interval is divided by the campaign progress percentage. |
| Historical Publisher Performance | Past success rate of the publisher in meeting interval-specific lead requirements on previous campaigns. |
| Lead Requirement Change | Difference in the required leads between the current and previous time intervals. |
| Lead-to-Remaining Ratio | Ratio of total, valid, and invalid leads achieved compared to the leads still required at that interval. |
| Lead Growth Rate | Change in total, valid, and invalid leads achieved compared to the previous interval. |
| Allocation | Whether the publisher met the lead requirement for that interval by the end of the campaign |
Exclusions
| Description | Example |
| Excludes campaign names ending with or containing "canceled". | Example excluded: "Event Canceled" or "Meeting canceled today |
| Excludes campaign names ending with or containing "cancelled" (British English spelling). | Example excluded: "Flight Cancelled" or "Show cancelled yesterday" |
| Excludes campaign names where "cancelled" appears as a separate word surrounded by spaces. | Example excluded: "This event is canceled today" but not "pre-canceled" |
| Excludes campaign names containing "test" as a separate word surrounded by spaces. | Example excluded: "This is a test campaign" |
| Excludes campaign names starting with "test" followed by a space. | Example excluded: "Test Campaign" but not "Latest Test" |
| Excludes campaign names ending with "test" preceded by a space | Example excluded: "This is a final test" but not "testing" |
| Campaign Is not a template | If a campaign is set as a template, this will be removed from the model |
| Excluded from Fullfillment Risk | If in the campaign setting, it is set to be excluded |
| The Publisher has an uncapped limit set | If on a campaign, the publisher has an uncapped enabled |
Supporting Materials